It’s all over for another year, meaning all that’s left for you to do is: dispose of the piles of uneaten coconut eclairs wallowing in the Quality Street tin; visit your aged aunt in hospital and apologise for the bout of campylobacter she contracted following your rushed efforts to serve the Christmas turkey; and fill out an insurance form after the unfortunate accident while trying out on the kids’ new hoverboard.
There’s all that plus the start of the Christmas trading statement season, the traditional period at the beginning of each year when we find out which high-street chains have made a right Horlicks of flogging Christmas gifts this time.
We will discover how well the country’s most boring clothes have been selling, with statements from Next and Marks & Spencer, plus more news on whether the middle classes have been thrifty or spendthrift, with an update from John Lewis.
Then there’s a statement from Topps Tiles – where some commentator is bound to talk up its post-flood prospects, probably by predicting the entire north of England is set to descend on the chain to replace its laminate flooring – as well as one from Signet Jewelers (it’s spelt incorrectly because it’s also listed in New York) plus another from Poundland Group. Something to look forward to, isn’t it?
Inundated by flood forecasts
As the flood waters (hopefully) subside, this week provides another opportunity for further heroic contributions to the clear-up effort.
Yes, economists will be pumping out more and more reports on what the floods will mean for the UK economy, as they attempt to fill column inches almost as effortlessly as the rains have stocked York’s cellars.
They will be following a couple of keen efforts from last week, including that of PricewaterhouseCoopers, which calculated that the floods would have a total economic cost of more than £3bn. It might be proved right about that, but, if it is, rival KPMG will be wide of the mark, with its estimate putting the cost at more than £5bn.
None of that, of course, will deter a hastily assembled raft of fresh guesses – and neither will the number-crunchers be put off by economists at Scotiabank, who muse on what the floods will mean for GDP and retail sales.
They write: “The bottom line is that as horrific as these events have been, we doubt that there will be a noticeable impact of the flooding on upcoming UK economic indicators.” It is a deeply unpopular view – especially with City marketing departments.
Persimmon goes through roof
We have noted before how it was Richard I who once quipped that he would have sold London if only he could have found a buyer – although it took eight centuries for that germ of an idea to become government policy.
Now, of course, the Lionheart’s project is almost complete, with a sizable chunk of the capital in the hands of shady tycoons who share our heroic monarch’s sketchy knowledge of the English language, plus his love of spending as much time as possible overseas.
We all know the results on the capital’s property prices, and last week saw more confirmation. London house prices soared by 12.1% between the final quarters of 2014 and 2015, Royal Bank of Scotland calculated, while Nationwide said that house prices accelerated to an eight-month high in December and predicted further rises of 3-6% in 2016.
Which brings us to housebuilder Persimmon, which constructs new homes inside the M25 and has a trading statement out on Thursday. The firm has enjoyed a four-fold increase in its share price over the past four years, which can be attributed to either a) exceptional management, or b) the company riding a government-induced housing market boom. Discuss, this week.
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