The first snapshot of French business mood since the Paris attacks points to a slowdown in economic activity, with companies in the service sector reporting a blow to trade and confidence.
A wide-ranging poll of French companies signalled that private sector output grew in November, but at the slowest pace for three months. Some companies in the services sector, which includes hotels and restaurants, said the gun and suicide bomb attacks on the French capital had dented trade.
That pressure combined with a slowdown in manufacturing and pushed the headline reading on the Markit Flash France PMI report down to 51.3 from 52.6 a month earlier. It was still above the 50-mark separating growth in output from contraction but signalled a slower pace of expansion. The “flash” measure is an estimate based on 85% of replies and will be updated in December.
— Markit Economics (@MarkitEconomics) November 23, 2015
Flash #France Composite Output Index at 3-month low of 51.3 in Nov (52.6 in Oct) https://t.co/sW7KDR1UYu
The survey compilers, who polled companies between 12 and 20 November, said the attacks on 13 November were cited by some services companies as they reported a drop in confidence.
Those signals echo moves on stock markets, where shares in travel-related companies and in luxury retailers were knocked by fears that people would cut back holiday plans.
But economists say that overall the attacks are unlikely to have a significant effect on France’s economy. The PMI report’s compilers said the French economy still looked like it would have continued to expand in the final three months of this year.
“French private sector output growth weakened slightly in November, with the Paris attacks reported to have hit activity among some service providers,” said Jack Kennedy, senior economist at Markit.
“While the longer-term economic impact following the attacks remains uncertain, PMI data suggest that GDP is on course to post another modest expansion in the fourth quarter following the 0.3% growth reported in the third quarter.”
The survey showed both manufacturers and services sector companies reported weaker growth in activity in November. But new business picked up. Services companies reported the fastest rise in new business for five months. Manufacturers indicated the fastest growth in new orders since April 2014, with domestic demand making up for a drop in export orders.
Business expectations in the French service sector showed little change in the latest month, remaining subdued relative to the survey’s historical trend, the report said.
“While some firms cited the securing of major contracts and launch of new services as factors likely to support activity growth over the next 12 months, others pointed to a drop in confidence following the Paris attacks,” it added.
— Markit Economics (@MarkitEconomics) November 23, 2015
Flash #eurozone #PMI Composite Output Index at 54.4 (53.9 in Oct), Services at 54.6 (54.1 in Oct), Mfg #PMI at 52.8 (52.3 in Oct)
A PMI report covering the wider eurozone suggested economic growth there picked up in the latest month. Businesses in the single currency bloc reported the fastest growth in business activity and employment for four-and-a-half years.
“The improved performance in terms of economic growth and job creation seen in November are all the more impressive given last weekend’s tragic events in Paris, which subdued economic activity in France – especially in the service sector,” said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.
— Markit Economics (@MarkitEconomics) November 23, 2015
#PMI data signals that #eurozone growth and job creation hit 4.5-year highs in November. https://t.co/IUui1BtTEe http://pic.twitter.com/4N6GgYXS8G
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