The Calgary Stampeders (14-4) will defeat the host Edmonton Eskimos (14-4) in the West final, Sunday at Commonwealth Stadium.
This one is so tough to call, it might have save time and space simply to toss a coin and let you know the result.
The difference may well lie in a strange quirk of the schedule.
When the White Stallions beat the Eskimos on Labour Day, it was the 12th time in a row they had bested their northern rivals. Change was in the air, however, and Edmonton won the following week in the pouring rain before doing it again in Week 15.
So, the jinx is over and Eskies fans are convinced this is their time.
Maybe, but a run through all of the stats and matchups shows these two clubs could basically switch uniforms and no one would notice.
Take a highlighter and run through the Edmonton and Calgary defensive numbers and look – in 20 of the categories they are right next to each other. Pretty much the same on offence, with real differences in only run and pass average (Stamps better in the air, Edmonton on the ground).
We can roll these matchups through about 1,500 words and you still won't be able to separate them. Here are a few quarterback thoughts:
- Since Edmonton's Mike Reilly returned from missing half the season, he's won eight in a row, thrown for more than 300 yards three games straight, and has his club believing he's the second coming of you know who. (Look up at night. What do you see?*)
- Calgary's Bo Mitchell, the West's nominee for Most Outstanding Player, has been consistent all season, averaging over 330 yards total offence per game.
- The last time these two played, in Week 15, they combined for two (2) points in the final 30 minutes on a beauty of a night. They were terrible.
What that says is both defences can rise up and pound you just as you're feeling cocky about your talent.
Here's another: In the games against each other, Calgary turned the ball over eight times to Edmonton's four, while the Stamps allowed four sacks while dumping Eskimo pivots nine times. That's a push.
Stamps' O-line hurting, but up to the task
Calgary's offensive line has been a mess through the second half due to injury. For a while there they've had two defensive linemen as the offensive guards.
Last week, centre Pierre Lavertu and guard Shane Bergman went down and neither (or both) may play. If the centre can't go, international John Estes will and that sets off ratio problems all over the roster.
Big break for the Esks? Well, the Stamps gave up the lowest number of sacks in the league, regardless.
Both teams have fine receivers, both can run (Edmonton just slightly better, but Stamps could have both Jerome Messam and Jon Cornish available).
So where's the difference, especially when the weather is expected to be cold but no snow?
Back in the winter, the CFL schedule maker sat down with his charts and computer to handle the most difficult challenge ever – working out a week to week when Commonwealth Stadium was hosting the FIFA Women's World Cup and the Pan Am Games took away Hamilton and Toronto for three weeks.
Out of that, Edmonton wound up with a Week 20 bye, and that's turned into a problem. Clinching the West and the bye forced this club to sit out for 21 days, watching everyone else keep game sharp.
Coach Chris Jones said he would treat that time like that between a college regular season and a bowl game. Fine, but in that scenario the other team has the same layoff.
The White Stallions are on their regular weekly schedule. Athletes love that. They hate long layoffs, and that, it says here, will be the difference.
How this can go wrong
His name is Kendial Lawrence. The most exciting player on either side totaled 2,276 yards (second in the league to Stefan Logan of Montreal), including 1,797 on kick returns.
If you keep hearing Kendial's name, Calgary is in big time trouble.
*Warren Moon.
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